Since the last issue of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report in mid-August, row-crop prices have surged to multi-year highs, and traders will be looking for reassurance from USDA that their historic length is justified heading into harvest.

USDA will release its September Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CDT Sept. 11.

CORN

Since the release of the August WASDE report on Aug. 12, the December 2026 corn contract rallied almost 90 cents to its early September peak, before drifting lower in recent sessions -- having become rapidly overbought and due for a bit of a breather. Falling crop ratings and dropping expectations for U.S. yields, combined with world supply issues, are the primary bullish drivers. On Sept. 11, the USDA will release its September WASDE report, and U.S. production forecasts will once again take center stage.

Beginning with the old-crop balance sheet, the category that continues to stand out for a potential change is exports -- with commitments still running 24% ahead of last year as of late August. And USDA's August forecast (3.4 billion bushels, up 18%) still suggests upward potential. However, I can also see the need for a slight cut to ethanol industry corn demand. The wild card, of course, is the incredibly large feed and residual category, and it is very possible that USDA could wait for the results of its Sept. 30 stocks survey to greatly shift demand to fit that narrative. In the monthly Dow Jones survey, the 15 firms surveyed predict 1.954 billion bushels (bb) of carry-in stocks for the 2026-27 season, which would be up 9 million bushels (mb) from August and would be a bit of a surprise to me.

Looking at the newly started 2026-27 marketing year, the headline number for the report will of course be the national average corn yield. USDA slashed its forecast by 2.3 bushels per acre (bpa) in August after less-than-ideal pollination weather for several regions in late July. Since then, the crop has continued to deteriorate in weekly ratings, with 56% considered to be in good-to-excellent condition as of Monday's Crop Progress update -- the lowest September opening reading in three years. For Friday, the average trade guess is calling for a 178.1 bpa yield. Assuming steady acreage, this would point to a 15.780 bb crop -- still the second-largest U.S. production on record but notably lower than 2025. Speaking of acreage, USDA surprised the market with a 1.4-million-acre increase to planted area in the August WASDE. While it is somewhat difficult to explain where added acreage could come from, it is worth remembering that after last year's August acreage surprise, USDA went on to add an additional 1.5 million to the total by the January WASDE, so something to be mindful of on Friday.

On the demand side, leaving the 16.33 bb forecast unchanged would result in corn ending stocks of 1.420 bb in the 2026-27 season. However, in my view, it is highly unlikely that given the sharply lower production and now-higher-priced situation for corn that feed and residual usage will remain north of 6 bb. Corn export commitments for the 2026-27 season are also behind USDA's pace as of late August. The average trade guess for Friday's report is for 1.533 bb of corn ending stocks, down 120 mb from August but also reflecting the demand deterioration that is an unfortunate side effect of lower supplies and higher prices.

For the world corn market, given the time of the year, U.S. changes will really dominate the world balance sheet. But there will be interest on the dynamics of European production and imports with Ukrainian exports, given the ongoing situation in the Black Sea. South America usually doesn't see many adjustments this time of year but is worth being mindful of, with USDA still trailing private production forecasts in Argentina for the 2026 corn crop. The analysts surveyed by Dow Jones see world corn ending stocks for the 2026-27 season dropping to 271.9 million metric tons (mmt) (10.7 bb), down roughly 9% from the 2025-26 cycle, if realized, and the lowest total world stocks in 14 years.

SOYBEANS

What a difference a year makes. On Sept. 9, 2025, November soybeans were trading in the $10.30s. Fast forward 12 months, and we are entering the fall season priced at over $13 on the November 2026 contract. What is seen as limited upside for yields, combined with consistent demand for new-crop exports, has started to squeeze U.S. soybean reserves on paper.

Beginning with the old-crop 2025-26 season, I expect Friday will feature few, if any, changes to the balance sheet. I still see the possibility that USDA is underestimating exports, but August crush will also have to be exceptionally strong to hit the crush goal of 2.655 bb. Ultimately, I believe the current estimate of 325 mb of carry-in soybean stocks is likely accurate.

For the new season beginning on Sept. 1, analysts are expecting another slight cut to the national soybean yield, with an average trade guess of 52.5 bpa. Assuming no changes to acreage (although the same caution applies as discussed for corn), this would equal a crop just north of 4.5 bb and still a U.S. record. On the demand side, I see the need for changes to USDA's balance sheet, but it is a question of whether USDA feels confident in the evidence thus far to boost exports for the upcoming year. As of late August, open sales are more than double what they were in 2025, with USDA currently only forecasting a 9% year-over-year increase in soybean export sales. Personally, I am estimating 2026-27 exports to be 1.730 bb versus the USDA August forecast of 1.660 bb. But I understand it is early, and there are factors to consider down the road, such as Brazil's crop size in 2027. Meanwhile, I am using a slightly lower crush estimate than USDA, but my ending stocks are ultimately much lower at 235 mb -- a very bullish number if true. As mentioned, however, I don't suggest USDA will make this large of a swing all in the Sept. 11 report necessarily. For Friday, the average Dow Jones estimate is calling for a 30-mb cut to ending stocks to 290 mb seems fair.

For the world soybean balance sheet, it should be another quiet event on Sept.11. Planting is just starting to get underway in Brazil and really won't gain full speed until October. So, I expect no changes to that crop estimate, which will stand as a record until proven otherwise -- fair given the history. At this time of the year, U.S. changes will carry the highest degree of weight through to the world outlook. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect 123.1 mmt (4.5 bb) of world soybean stocks, down 1.1 mmt from August and down 1.5% from the previous year.

WHEAT

Since the sudden and severe escalation in attacks on shipping lanes and port infrastructure in the Black Sea in mid-July, wheat futures have soared to three-year highs, with the December Kansas City board moving over $8 in the past month. The August WASDE report offered few easy answers to supply side concerns heading into the final months of 2026, and traders will again look at USDA's world balance sheet on Sept. 11 for clues.

However, let us first look at the U.S. wheat balance sheet. It is possible we will once again see reduced U.S. wheat production in the Sept. 11 WASDE report after plenty of heat and dryness across the Northern Plains during the spring wheat growing season. On the demand side, the category to watch will be exports, as thus far, the U.S. has seen little added business as a result of the international supply pinch caused by the Black Sea war. In fact, to end August, wheat commitments are 31% below where they were at the same point in 2025, with USDA forecasting a 15% year-over-year decline (to 775 mb) as of the August WASDE. A cut here would likely offset any supply side reductions, though it is also possible that USDA will wait to see if demand picks up late in the year. As a result, 2026-27 wheat ending stocks may be little changed in the Sept. 11 update -- with the Dow Jones survey calling for 720 mb compared to 717 mb in the August report.

The world balance sheet will be where most interest lies on Sept. 11, though for the second month in a row, I don't expect the typical analysis of world ending stocks to be of much value. The stocks number by itself could be misleading, as Black Sea reserves are currently on the rise with no outlet for supplies via the Black Sea. For Sept. 11, the categories to watch, in my opinion, are world imports to gauge how demand is seen as fairing with prices now at three-year highs, as well as other major world exporters to see which countries may be expected to help bridge the gap caused by lower exports from Russia and Ukraine. As an added note, Southern Hemisphere crops in Australia and Argentina will also be worth keeping tabs on through the latter stages of the growing season.

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Sept. 11, as we discuss USDA's new estimates considering recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's USDA WASDE webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

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