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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 10/17 11:31
Fat Cattle Trade $5.00 to $9.00 Higher, Hints of a Trade Deal Cloud the
Market's Strong Fundamentals
Although fed cash cattle prices are trading higher, the cattle contracts
have plummeted due to external pressures.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a rough morning for the cattle complex as traders have ripped
nearly all their support for the market out of the complex upon hearing
Thursday afternoon that President Trump could have established some sort of
deal to lower beef prices. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is finally seeing a
little more support as traders note the uptick in pork cutout values. December
corn is up 2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.70. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 236.91 points and the NASDAQ is up 60.43 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It's been a tumultuous morning for the cattle complex thus far as the market
opened in a panicked manner, as on Thursday afternoon, President Trump shared
that the administration is going to do something about beef prices being too
high. Although no specific details have been shared just yet, there's a belief
that some sort of deal could have been done with Argentina, as President Trump
just met with their President, Javier Milei, at the White House. This comes at
such an un-opportunistic time as the fed cash cattle market is trading anywhere
from $5.00 to $9.00 higher, which should have a bolstering effect on the
market, but this looming news has clouded that positive fundamental
achievement. December live cattle are down $5.77 at $242.07, February live
cattle are down $6.40 at $243.15 and April live cattle are down $6.62 at
$243.62. A light trade is currently being reported in the North, where most of
the cattle are trading at $372, which is $9.00 higher than last week's weighted
average. A few sales have also been reported in the South, where cattle are
trading at $240, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Asking prices for cattle in the South remain firm at $242 plus and in the North
atIt comes as no real surprise that the news from President Trump about a
potential fix on beef prices being too high has sent the feeder cattle complex
limit lower in all of its contracts except the soon-to-expire October 2025
contract. This news development has been gut-wrenching for the market as the
cattle complex was just in the middle of adding another record-breaking high to
the complex's already impressive rally, but this development has completely
shaken the complex. November feeders are down $9.25 at $371.70, January feeders
are down $9.25 at $369.30 and March feeders are down $9.25 at $367.45. $375.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.89 ($367.00) and select up $1.43
($350.36) with a movement of 139 loads (107.34 loads of choice, 14.24 loads of
select, 12.05 loads of trim and 5.27 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It comes as no real surprise that the news from President Trump about a
potential fix on beef prices being too high has sent the feeder cattle complex
limit lower in all of its contracts except the soon-to-expire October 2025
contract. This news development has been gut-wrenching for the market as the
cattle complex was just in the middle of adding another record-breaking high to
the complex's already impressive rally, but this development has completely
shaken the complex. November feeders are down $9.25 at $371.70, January feeders
are down $9.25 at $369.30 and March feeders are down $9.25 at $367.45.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher, although a couple of the
nearby contracts are trading slightly lower. The market's positive turn could
be partly because of the uptick in pork cutout prices, but it could also be
that traders believe the market has traded lower enough for the time being.
December lean hogs are down $0.02 at $82.57, February lean hogs are steady at
$85.10 and April lean hogs are up $0.12 at $88.97.
The projected lean hog index for 10/16/2025 is down $0.47 at $96.12, and the
actual index for 10/15/2025 is down $0.61 at $96.59. Hog prices are lower on
the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.75 with a weighted average price
of $89.81, ranging from $84.00 to $92.00 on 626 head and a five-day rolling
average of $93.75. Pork cutouts total 226.47 loads with 197.40 loads of pork
cuts and 29.07 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.57, $104.74.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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