OMAHA (DTN) -- Some Wisconsin farmers started planting season early, followed by long periods of dry spells across the state, a concern that made each rain event on the weather radar a gamble.

The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour predicts Wisconsin corn and soybeans to finish slightly below the USDA RMA five-year average.

Weather and growing conditions fuel farmer optimism as they look to their own crops -- and neighboring crops -- for yield estimate insights. Overall, Wisconsin growers are hopeful that some rain events will finish the corn and soybean crops in good standing.

CORN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 187.2 bushels per acre (bpa)

-- DTN 2025: 194.3 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 187.6 bpa

SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATES:

-- DTN 2026: 52.2 bpa

-- DTN 2025: 51.6 bpa

-- USDA RMA 5-YEAR AVERAGE: 53.0 bpa

While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The tour estimates reported here are based on yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

For more about how those models work and what makes them unique, please see: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Results for all states covered by the tour can be found here: https://www.dtnpf.com/…

WEATHER COMMENTARY

According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, early spring precipitation was record-high, allowing Wisconsin to lose all traces of drought. But variable temperatures and late-season frosts caused a lot of mixed planting dates across the state.

"The storm track was much less frequent in May and June, though, and drought crept slowly back into the state," he said. "The state was saved by being on the edge of a heat dome in very late June and early July, when precipitation events were somewhat frequent through the state, including some severe weather and areas of flooding."

Rain was patchy for most of the rest of July outside of the tail end of the month. While some areas saw improvement, most saw degradation.

"Rainfall during the last day of the month and into early August was widespread but will not be shown in this year's tour as it was too late to be included for the models," he added.

MARKET COMMENTARY

"Wisconsin's corn crop in 2025 was nothing short of stellar," said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery, noting that 81% of the crop was in good or excellent condition at the beginning of August 2025, en route to a record-setting yield for the state. "That being said, it was always going to be a tall task to match last year's very favorable growing conditions. While this year's crop is looking good at 70% good to excellent to begin August, a mean-reverting year may be in store with the Digital Yield Tour result almost directly in line with Wisconsin's previous five-year average."

The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour is forecasting a fractionally higher soybean yield for Wisconsin as compared to early August of 2025, which "would imply record potential given last year's record-setting result for the state, though August weather can make or break a crop," Montgomery said. "To begin August, 72% of the crop was called good or excellent, lower than a year ago, but still an overall very good condition to have heading into the critical pod-filling window."

OBSERVATIONS

-- Brad Laack, Sheboygan Falls, Wisconsin:

Laack, who raises corn, soybeans, winter wheat and alfalfa near Sheboygan Falls in east-central Wisconsin, predicts a good crop for his area. But with very little rainfall this summer, his expectations aren't high.

Although the red clay soil on his farmland -- between Lakes Michigan and Winnebago -- holds moisture well, Laack said his fields have missed almost every rain event this summer.

"It seems like every time there was something coming across on a radar map, it went north or south of us, around us, one way or another. The storms just split right around Lake Winnebago," he said.

Planting season for Laack started 10 days later than usual and finished 10 days ahead of schedule. Crop emergence was good, he said, but the dryness crept into May, June and most of July.

"Our crops were majorly suffering, so we definitely took some yield off the top," he said. "I do feel we aborted pods on the bottom of the beans, and we definitely took yield off the top of the corn."

An inch of rainfall during the last week of July helped things turn around.

"I think we're going to have a good crop, but not a great crop," he said. "It was just too dry and warm. Compared to the last couple years, we're going to be down 30 bushels (per acre) on the corn."

In 2025, Laack's corn yielded 210 bpa, but this year, he's predicting around 180 bpa.

Early into August, Laack is hoping for another turnaround -- with just a little more rain.

"We have pretty good chances of precipitation in the next 10 days here. If we can catch one of those rain events and even get a half inch out of it, we're plenty fine. When it gets wet around here, we can hold the soil moisture," Laack said.

Last year, the area succumbed to wet and humid conditions, causing some worry about diseases such as white mold, also known as Sclerotinia stem rot.

This year, disease pressure is low, Laack said.

-- Adam Kolb, Manitowoc County, Wisconsin:

About 5 miles from Lake Michigan in Manitowoc County, farmer and crop consultant Adam Kolb grows corn, soybeans, winter wheat and alfalfa.

Planting started and ended early on his northeastern Wisconsin farm in May.

"I had the corn planter washed up and put away in May, which, I don't know if I've ever done that before," Kolb said.

In no time after planting, the rains became few and far between.

"That trend continued, and it's been that way all summer. Every time the news stations called for rain and were in a consensus that we'd get some, the rain would never make it here," he said.

While the Milwaukee area saw its wettest April on record this year, the area also tracked dryness at historic lows in July.

"So many extremes in one growing season," he said. "Our crops are hanging on each day."

Kolb said because of the lack of rain and low disease pressure, many farmers in the area have opted against fungicide applications.

"If it's not going to rain, we're not going to have an adequate crop anyway," he said. "The number of acres that got fungicide applied this year is down some, which is justified because I think the disease pressure does seem pretty low."

As of August, Kolb's crops are at their full size and full reproductive phase but are thirsty.

"We're hand-to-mouth on moisture right now. Once you dig down into the soil, there's virtually no subsoil moisture there," he said. "My tiles have not run since the beginning of June; they haven't run all summer."

Going into harvest, Kolb hopes for favorable conditions for the rest of the fall.

"We've had three really nice falls the last few years where it's dry, warm and stayed above average for temperatures late into fall," he said. "It certainly helped the crop mature nicely and made for very easy harvesting."

-- Mark Bacon, Hancock, Wisconsin:

In central Wisconsin, Mark Bacon of Hancock, has felt the extreme dryness and heat this summer.

Growing corn and soybeans on irrigated land, Bacon said his crops look decent, but he doesn't expect a huge yield -- only average to slightly above average. Extreme heat during pollination has reduced top-end potential.

"Dryland crops are in bad shape. Up until a few days ago, we had our first decent rain in about a month," he said in early August.

Planting season went smoothly for corn and soybeans and ended early -- but the dry spell lingered, increasing the cost of irrigation.

"There are benefits and drawbacks (to planting early). Number one, we're done early. Number two, it means it's been dry, or at least dry during planting season because Mother Nature dictates our planting window a lot more aggressively than anything else," he said. "And if she's willing to let us put stuff in and we can get stuff done timely, it usually means it's dry."

Dryness lingered through the entire month of July.

"Our soil moistures are extremely dry. There are just no reserves down there," he said.

Heading into August, Bacon predicts more hot and dry weather in the area, and an early harvest.

"I suspect things are going to be hot and dry, and harvest is going to progress quick and fast this year," he said. "We'll be seeing dry enough corn to start harvesting by Sept. 25."

On his irrigated land, disease pressure is low, although some diseases may start to move in, including northern leaf blight, gray spot and possibly tar spot.

"Southern rust is apparently in the state as well, but we haven't seen any in the Central Sands area yet," Bacon added.

-- Matt Speers, manager at FIRST:

Throughout the season, field managers for FIRST (Farmers' Independent Research of Seed Technologies) coordinate unbiased, head-to-head field trials for commercial corn and soybean seed products.

Connecting with farmers in southern and central Wisconsin, Matt Speers has found varied concerns for each region's corn and soybean growth.

In southern Wisconsin, Speers has noticed issues with soybeans that were planted early. The uniformity wasn't progressing as well as later-planted soybeans.

"There was a stretch of really nice weather toward the end of April that people wanted to get stuff in the ground," he said. "Then we had some days, not necessarily freezing, but they hovered around that 35-degree mark for a few nights. I think that might have stunted the initial emergence."

Although those test plots of early-planted soybeans looked patchy, Speers said their canopy cover is good and they've made a comeback.

In central Wisconsin, test plots on irrigated, sandy soils "look great," he said.

"There are some in the area that are not looking too great because of the drought," he noted. "They've lost a lot of moisture in the sandy soil; the heavier soils have held water better."

Overall, Speers said after the July dry spell, most farmers are feeling optimistic about yield potential this year.

"I think they are planning on an average yield," he said. "That dry, dry spell was really concerning because it was such a crucial moment of the corn development."

Susan Payne can be reached at susan.payne@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @jpusan

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