After significantly bearish releases in its last two outings, USDA returns with a fresh set of estimates on Tuesday, Nov. 10. Heading into this round of reports, however, markets find themselves in a very different space.

USDA will release its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CST on Tuesday.

CORN

To call the corn market's price action a "nosedive" over the past two months would probably be an understatement. December futures are headed for a sixth consecutive lower weekly close, with prices now back to June lows -- unwinding over $1 per bushel of value through the selloff. There is also no guessing as to what the catalyst for the selloff was, after USDA added over 400 million bushels (mb) of corn supply to the 2026-27 balance sheet between its September Grain Stocks and October WASDE reports. In that sense, I'm sure there are many who are cringing at the prospect of next week's updates. However, in markets that have become more and more event-driven, a fresh set of estimates could possibly serve as the bandage that wounded bullish traders have been longing for.

For Tuesday, all eyes will once again be on the U.S. corn yield estimate. USDA stunned the market with a 2.7-bushel-per-acre (bpa) increase in the October WASDE. This time around, opinion is just as split -- with the range of yield estimates in the Dow Jones survey a staggering 12.3 bpa. Estimates range from 173.2 to 185.5 bpa. However, most guesses among the 15 firms surveyed are in the 179- to 181-bpa range. On average, the expectation is for a 0.7-bpa cut from October. If realized, and assuming no acreage changes, that would cut the 2026 U.S. corn crop to 15.974 billion bushels (bb), down 60 mb from the October report and still the second-largest U.S. corn crop on record.

On the demand side, currently the most concerning USDA forecast is exports. USDA surprisingly increased its estimate by 25 mb in the October WASDE despite commitments consistently running over 30% behind the 2025 year thus far through the 2026-27 campaign. There is certainly a long way to go and still a lot of supply uncertainty in Europe, which could lead to a spark for the export program. So perhaps USDA will choose to wait to see how that plays out. However, there is also surely room for a 25- to 50-mb reduction at the minimum if USDA sees fit to do so. The Dow Jones pre-report survey is calling for 1.826 bb of U.S. corn ending stocks by August 2027, which would be down from 1.849 bb in October. This number does imply that most analysts are expecting a demand cut to partially offset the expected cut to production.

For the world corn balance sheet, it should be a quiet time of year. There may be some fine-tuning to 2025-26 numbers, but it is difficult to speak to the next round of crops in South America with a high degree of confidence, given that Argentina is roughly 50% planted and Brazil's export crop (safrinha) will not be planted in large part until 2027. The immediately important numbers for Tuesday will likely be European production and imports coupled with the outlook for Ukrainian exports. For world stocks, analysts are expecting a 1.1-million-metric-ton (mmt) boost in the November WASDE to 281.5 mmt, per the Dow Jones survey.

SOYBEANS

Despite a much more bullish outlook in the October WASDE relative to corn and wheat, soybean futures have been no exception to the bearish wave of selling over the past month. At the time of writing this, January futures are attempting to avoid a 10th straight lower session and have fallen below $12 this week for the first time since early August.

In Tuesday's report, analysts are expecting that USDA will once again increase the national average U.S. soybean yield deeper into record territory. The average guess of 53.6 bpa would be a 0.5-bpa increase from October. In fact, all 15 firms surveyed by Dow Jones expect a new record for soybean yield in 2026. This is, of course, expected to result in another record crop estimate, to the tune of 4.604 bb (assuming no changes to acreage). In some ways, the 2026 crop will go down as a weather-defying one -- with July heat and dryness, and heavy September rainfall, seemingly isolated enough incidents as to not negatively affect the national output.

For the demand side of the soybean balance sheet, there is still optimism for bullish revisions. First and foremost, the export program continues to run a pace well above USDA's expected year-over-year growth of 12%, with commitments 76% above the 2025-26 year through October. There may be some concern regarding USDA's large crush forecast, however, after much lower-than-expected crush in September due to the delayed start to the U.S. soybean harvest. However, USDA may wait to see how well the industry recovers through October and November before possibly making any downward revisions. Either way, I currently see the upside potential for export demand as outweighing the downward potential for crush. For ending stocks, the Dow Jones survey expects a 21-mb increase from October to 336 mb, this would imply increase demand to offset part of the increase to production.

For the world soybean outlook, I once again do not expect any drastic changes from USDA on Tuesday. Soybean planting in central Brazil has been at a rampant pace and raises the question of whether planted area will be larger than initially thought. However, with an abnormally dry October, the jury is very much still out on where production will land in 2027. In that sense, holding the estimate at its current record idea at this point seems fair to me. For world stocks, the guess for Tuesday is 125.3 mmt, up 1 mmt from October, if realized, but likely to be primarily driven by changes to the U.S. sheet.

WHEAT

Last but not least, the wheat market -- without a doubt the biggest bear of the three over the past two months. Barring a miraculous Friday afternoon turnaround, December Kansas City futures will close lower for a staggering 10 straight weeks -- the longest such streak since April through June of 1997. It is made more remarkable by the fact that the Black Sea disruption is ongoing. But at this point, traders appear convinced that since the wheat is there, it will find its way into the world market at some point.

Beginning with the U.S. balance sheet, there shouldn't be any major changes to the supply side of the sheet, though imports can always act as a surprise and are worth keeping an eye on. Most of the focus should be on the export program, which, despite improvement over the second half of October, still remains 28% behind the same point in 2025 in terms of commitments. USDA is expecting a 17% year-over-year decline in exports as of the October forecast, leaving room for further adjustments lower. For Tuesday, the Dow Jones average estimate for U.S. wheat ending stocks is 747 mb, which would be an increase from 740 mb in the October report.

For the world wheat market, Russia's and Ukraine's export programs, combined with importer demand, will continue to be the major themes to watch on Tuesday. Thus far, despite Black Sea regional exports running at roughly 50% capacity compared to 2025, USDA has penciled in just a 15% year-over-year cut. World stocks are expected to increase by 1.1 mmt (per the Dow Jones survey), very likely the result of further cuts to Black Sea exports. In terms of world trade dynamics, the next upcoming crops in Argentina and Australia will also be of interest -- with production potential thus far much better than had been expected given fertilizer constraints early in 2026 and the strong El Nino weather pattern. Both countries are expected to help fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine should the disruption persist into 2027.

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST on Tuesday, Nov. 10, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Tuesday's USDA WASDE webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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