DTN Midday Grain Comments 02/26 10:56
Grains in the Red Midday Friday
Corn is 4 to 6 cents lower, soybeans are 11 to 13 cents lower and wheat is 8
to 15 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 204 points. The U.S.
Dollar Index is 0.65 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are
weaker with crude down $1.10. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are
weaker with gold down $56.00.
Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday Friday with broad weakness in
commodities Friday morning following the pullback on Thursday. Ethanol
production should continue to rebound with the trade looking for better margins
into the second quarter as spring driving season commences. Trade will continue
to look for further export-sale confirmations with the daily wire remaining
quiet. Shipping pace should recover further short term and basis should remain
sideways short term as May becomes the front month. Double crop planting in
Brazil is well underway as well, but behind the usual pace. On the May
contract, support is the 20-day at $5.47, which we are below at midday, with
the lower Bollinger band at $5.34 as support.
Soybeans is 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with follow-through selling after
the poor finish Thursday and mixed spread action. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower
and oil is 0.25 cent to 0.35 cent lower. Basis will likely remain flat at
strong levels with slower movement as the export program winds down and a
bigger focus is on crush margins. Brazil should catch rains short term for most
areas, with harvest underway but behind the usual pace, and the export
shipments picking up steam. Argentina action is trending warmer and drier over
the next few days. The May chart has resistance at the fresh high at $14.45
3/4, with support the 20-day at $13.80.
Wheat trade is 8 to 15 cents lower with spring wheat holding up the best at
midday as trade is fading back to the middle of the recent range. The dollar
surged back past 90 points on the index at midday, back to the middle of the
range. The Plains should see warmer weather, bringing the crop closer to
exiting dormancy soon with some dry pockets persisting. KC is at 28-cent
discount to Chicago and Minneapolis is at 23-cent discount with mixed action so
far. KC May chart support is the 20-day at $6.36, which we are testing at
midday, with resistance the fresh high at $6.62.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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