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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/19 11:00

   Corn, Beans Higher at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 3 to 4 cents higher, and wheat is 
2 cents lower to 3 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 60 points. The dollar 
index is 38 points lower. Interest rate products are lower. Energies are mixed 
with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is sharply lower except front-month hogs. 
Precious metals are firmer with gold up $2.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with spread trade easing and 
two-sided action coming into play during the day session. The USDA announced 
345,000 metric tons sold to unknown, and 123,000 metric tons to Mexico. Ethanol 
margins remain range bound with unleaded remaining at a discount to ethanol 
with corn values continuing to limit upside. Basis will likely remain solid 
with rains slowing harvest along with the upfront demand. Weekly export 
inspections remained solid at 911,012 metric tons, with weekly crop progress 
showing harvest near 40% and solidly ahead of average. On the December contract 
resistance is the fresh high at $4.08 with support the 20-day at $3.83.


   Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents higher with trade finding light buying to 
start the week, with spread trade flat to softer so far, with trade looking for 
more export business with nothing announced today and rains in South America as 
planting remains behind schedule. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 higher and oil is 40 
to 50 points lower. The ral remains in the lower end of the range with 
planting progress in Brazil likely to pick up, with Argentina still holding 
onto soybean supplies as an inflation hedge. Basis remains strong as we 
continue to work to max out our logistics capacity to ship the needed export 
bushels. Weekly export inspections remained very strong at 2.173 million metric 
tons, with harvest progress nearing 80% complete. The November chart has 
resistance at the fresh high at 10.79 3/4 with support the 20-day at 10.31.


   Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher with from month Minneapolis 
trade leading after early Chicago strength as world weather concerns continue 
to drive the wheat complex higher. The ruble action continues to favor Russia a 
bit in the export markets but their domestic prices are now elevated with 
growing winter-kill concerns, along with too much rain in Australia. Kansas 
City is at a 64-cent discount to Chicago with spreads backing off the recent 
highs, while Minneapolis is back to 61 cent discount with firmer action and 
fresh highs scored. Rains look to be concentrated to the eastern growing areas 
in the short term. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 239,688 
metric tons, with planting ahead of normal, and emergence lagging with the dry 
weather for the plains. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high 
at $5.68 1/2, and support is the 20-day at $5.18.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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